There are not many economic instruments for containing inflation.
Posted: Sun Dec 22, 2024 6:38 am
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What does the key rate affect?
Read on the topic
Why the key rate hike in recent months has not helped reduce inflation
Raising the key rate can curb inflation, but it is not a universal or quick-acting solution.
“A high key rate does not always lead to a rapid reduction in inflation,poland number for whatsapp because inflation depends on many factors that the Central Bank cannot influence directly ,” notes leading analyst at AMarkets Igor Rastorguev.
External events often influence inflation more than the Central Bank's policy , says Igor Rastorguev. For example, rising import prices or shortages of goods increase their cost. Also, large government expenditures accelerate inflation if they are not supported by real economic growth.
The simplest of them is the key rate, notes Ivan Petrov, professor at the Department of Industrial Markets at the Financial University. At a rate lower than the current 21% per annum, inflation would definitely be higher.
The key rate at the end of 2024 is at a record level, but the economy's reaction to it is less pronounced than during previous tightening by the Central Bank, notes Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at FG Finam. The expert identifies three main reasons why inflation is growing:
The state allocates a lot of money from the budget: for example, for military expenses or for limits for preferential mortgages. Because of this, the state may have more expenses than income. In 2022-2024, the amount of allocated funds exceeded 10% of GDP.
People's incomes are growing rapidly due to a tight labor market and "war" payments.
The lending market proved to be resilient to the increase in the key rate - it slowed down significantly only starting in November 2024. Lending began to gradually slow down in July - against the backdrop of rising rates, changes in the terms of preferential mortgages, the cancellation of the preferential mortgage program at 8% per annum and tightening of banking regulation.
What measures will help reduce inflation in Russia
First of all, it is important to maintain the ratio of wage growth at the required level: so that it does not exceed the growth of labor productivity, as Ivan Petrov says.
What does the key rate affect?
Read on the topic
Why the key rate hike in recent months has not helped reduce inflation
Raising the key rate can curb inflation, but it is not a universal or quick-acting solution.
“A high key rate does not always lead to a rapid reduction in inflation,poland number for whatsapp because inflation depends on many factors that the Central Bank cannot influence directly ,” notes leading analyst at AMarkets Igor Rastorguev.
External events often influence inflation more than the Central Bank's policy , says Igor Rastorguev. For example, rising import prices or shortages of goods increase their cost. Also, large government expenditures accelerate inflation if they are not supported by real economic growth.
The simplest of them is the key rate, notes Ivan Petrov, professor at the Department of Industrial Markets at the Financial University. At a rate lower than the current 21% per annum, inflation would definitely be higher.
The key rate at the end of 2024 is at a record level, but the economy's reaction to it is less pronounced than during previous tightening by the Central Bank, notes Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at FG Finam. The expert identifies three main reasons why inflation is growing:
The state allocates a lot of money from the budget: for example, for military expenses or for limits for preferential mortgages. Because of this, the state may have more expenses than income. In 2022-2024, the amount of allocated funds exceeded 10% of GDP.
People's incomes are growing rapidly due to a tight labor market and "war" payments.
The lending market proved to be resilient to the increase in the key rate - it slowed down significantly only starting in November 2024. Lending began to gradually slow down in July - against the backdrop of rising rates, changes in the terms of preferential mortgages, the cancellation of the preferential mortgage program at 8% per annum and tightening of banking regulation.
What measures will help reduce inflation in Russia
First of all, it is important to maintain the ratio of wage growth at the required level: so that it does not exceed the growth of labor productivity, as Ivan Petrov says.