We see uses or possible uses of this technology everywhere (such as the tests that Google is doing to change the way its search engine works by applying artificial intelligence ). I agree that all this is incredible and that we are going to see great advances in the coming months and years. I myself got carried away in the article about the Google search engine.
That said, I think the size of the waves generated by new trends is getting bigger, and so is the fall from their crest. We have seen this recently with the metaverse, blockchain, etc. and saudi arabia mobile number owner name we will see it with generative artificial intelligence.
Both technologies have a more than spectacular future, but not so much in the present. To explain this, I think the law defined by Roy Amara is perfect:
We tend to overestimate the short-term effect of technology and underestimate the long-term effect.
As I showed you in my article about the revolution that ChatGPT caused when it reached the general public, Gartner 's adoption curve for new technologies estimates that this technology will begin to mature within a period of 2 to 5 years.
Gartner Artificial Intelligence Adoption Curve
We do not make the same mistakes of the past with artificial intelligence
In this sense I like the approach of the MIT Sloan Management Review article , which warns of the mistakes made previously with other technologies.
We're making predictions about what uses it's going to have, what jobs it's going to replace, etc. when the technology is in its early stages. When we've done this in the past, we've usually been way off base.
We must bear in mind that those who have the greatest interest in this technology are those who can obtain the greatest benefit in the short and medium term: ChatGPT, Google, consultancies, agencies, business schools, “gurus of everything” (those who, weeks after each technological innovation appears, proclaim themselves experts), etc.
In the face of all this noise (I repeat, I am not denying the evidence of technological progress, but rather the bubble that has formed), companies and investment funds are increasing their bets. This makes others see it as real proof that the technology will be ready “tomorrow.”
This increases the famous FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), which affects us all at some point.
On the other hand, we have the global crisis and the need to reduce staff. Here we have read news about a course platform justifying mass layoffs, because artificial intelligence was going to replace part of its staff. The reality is that they were already in crisis and artificial intelligence was just an excuse .
That is to say, I think that between one thing and another we are feeding back into the already very strong expectation. We are just adding fuel to the fire. But in the end we will run out of wood and we will begin to see the reality of this technology. It would be good to review the big headlines around this time in 2024.
Artificial intelligence has a great future, but…
We have to be patient and wait for things to settle down, we have to think about the things that we can already apply to our daily lives (at the moment there are few that are really useful and reliable) and see what limitations and protocols are established.
Whether we agree or not, we have already seen limitations in other countries, limitations in use in companies (Telefónica, BBVA, etc.) due to the privacy-related problems it can cause (all data we enter into ChatGPT or similar becomes part of the system), low quality of the content it generates, etc.
In addition, these types of technological revolutions create a lot of confusion and take many companies out of focus. I always insist that we have to focus on what is important and work from the inside out and not the other way around.
We will resolve and clarify these issues as technology evolves. That will be the moment of truth when we will see its real uses. If Amara's Law is fulfilled, after the initial expectation we will give up and be caught off guard because we will not be prepared. It is our fate.