No Need to See a Fortune Teller, or How to Learn Industry Trends with the Help of Research
Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2025 10:41 am
Adaptability of the method
The Delphi method can be used for forecasting in any area where realistic recommendations are needed.
Disadvantages of the method
The Delphi method has its disadvantages. Let us note the following shortcomings.
Influence of the organizers
Participants are not under mutual influence, but the organizers have the opportunity to influence the experts.
Collective opinion
As we said above, the goal of the Delphi method is consensus. But the consensus is kuwait phone number list not always the most correct. In addition, in order to achieve the goal, the organizational group may begin to manipulate the participants and strive for a coincidence of opinions. The experts, in turn, will join the majority.
Rejecting non-standard solutions
The analytical group summarizes the opinions of experts, evaluates them according to certain criteria and, thus, misses and does not take into account new creative solutions that could be very useful.
Time consuming
The method is not suitable if you need to get results and recommendations quickly. Between stages and rounds, a minimum of a day, a maximum of a month passes. In addition, an effective process requires not only time, but also financial and human resources.
Complex interpretation
Although we have spoken about the advantages of the Delphi method adaptability to different areas, data interpretation is a labor-intensive task. In Russia, this method is not yet very widespread precisely because of the lack of experience in analyzing information in such studies.
To solve less complex problems in business, there are simple and interesting techniques that do not require special training, for example, the TRIZ technique or the 5 Whys method .
The Delphi method can be used for forecasting in any area where realistic recommendations are needed.
Disadvantages of the method
The Delphi method has its disadvantages. Let us note the following shortcomings.
Influence of the organizers
Participants are not under mutual influence, but the organizers have the opportunity to influence the experts.
Collective opinion
As we said above, the goal of the Delphi method is consensus. But the consensus is kuwait phone number list not always the most correct. In addition, in order to achieve the goal, the organizational group may begin to manipulate the participants and strive for a coincidence of opinions. The experts, in turn, will join the majority.
Rejecting non-standard solutions
The analytical group summarizes the opinions of experts, evaluates them according to certain criteria and, thus, misses and does not take into account new creative solutions that could be very useful.
Time consuming
The method is not suitable if you need to get results and recommendations quickly. Between stages and rounds, a minimum of a day, a maximum of a month passes. In addition, an effective process requires not only time, but also financial and human resources.
Complex interpretation
Although we have spoken about the advantages of the Delphi method adaptability to different areas, data interpretation is a labor-intensive task. In Russia, this method is not yet very widespread precisely because of the lack of experience in analyzing information in such studies.
To solve less complex problems in business, there are simple and interesting techniques that do not require special training, for example, the TRIZ technique or the 5 Whys method .