A-share market is currently facing a negative
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 5:50 am
After the surge since the end of September last year, the overall valuation of humanoid robots has risen sharply, and may face turbulence in the short term, mainly due to the beta risk brought by the broader market.
Previously, the A-share capital market fully priced in the logic that a package of policy expectations would allow the economy to achieve a better recovery, but data such as the November economy and December PMI confirmed that the market was previously too optimistic. In addition, the continued surge in the bond market and the continued decline in the commodity market also reflect that these two markets hold relatively pessimistic expectations for the economy.
In addition to the fundamentals, the factor on the capital side. That is, all the funds that entered the trillion level on October 8 were trapped, and the margin ratio of margin trading has rapidly dropped to 253%, entering the bear market level, but the balance of margin trading is still at the bull market level (as high as 1.8 trillion). If the market falls again, it faces the risk of passive deleveraging.
It should be noted that the leveraged funds that entered cash app data after October 18 were mainly allocated to CSI 1000, CSI 2000 and micro-cap stocks, with a rough scale of around 300 billion. Once rapid deleveraging occurs, the damage to small and medium-sized stocks will be greater.
There are no large blue-chip companies in the humanoid robot sector, all of which are small and medium-sized companies, and will face the deleveraging risks mentioned above.
However, once the A-share market stabilizes, humanoid robots will most likely make a comeback because the industry logic supports it. In my opinion, a better time to deploy robots may be around the Spring Festival holiday.
From a historical review, from 2010 to 2024, there were 13 years of increase in February out of the 15 years, and the CSI 300 Index rose by an average of 3.6%, much higher than other months. In addition, from the perspective of market style, in February, it outperformed the market in 14 of the past 15 years, and the market style characteristics are particularly obvious.
Previously, the A-share capital market fully priced in the logic that a package of policy expectations would allow the economy to achieve a better recovery, but data such as the November economy and December PMI confirmed that the market was previously too optimistic. In addition, the continued surge in the bond market and the continued decline in the commodity market also reflect that these two markets hold relatively pessimistic expectations for the economy.
In addition to the fundamentals, the factor on the capital side. That is, all the funds that entered the trillion level on October 8 were trapped, and the margin ratio of margin trading has rapidly dropped to 253%, entering the bear market level, but the balance of margin trading is still at the bull market level (as high as 1.8 trillion). If the market falls again, it faces the risk of passive deleveraging.
It should be noted that the leveraged funds that entered cash app data after October 18 were mainly allocated to CSI 1000, CSI 2000 and micro-cap stocks, with a rough scale of around 300 billion. Once rapid deleveraging occurs, the damage to small and medium-sized stocks will be greater.
There are no large blue-chip companies in the humanoid robot sector, all of which are small and medium-sized companies, and will face the deleveraging risks mentioned above.
However, once the A-share market stabilizes, humanoid robots will most likely make a comeback because the industry logic supports it. In my opinion, a better time to deploy robots may be around the Spring Festival holiday.
From a historical review, from 2010 to 2024, there were 13 years of increase in February out of the 15 years, and the CSI 300 Index rose by an average of 3.6%, much higher than other months. In addition, from the perspective of market style, in February, it outperformed the market in 14 of the past 15 years, and the market style characteristics are particularly obvious.