The potential of the digital ruble

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The " attack " strategy involves the active promotion of products that implement the unique advantages of the digital ruble to attract customers and generate commission income. For example, targeted social payments, servicing retail transactions with residential real estate or personal vehicles, as well as the brazil cell phone number list creation of " marked " rubles for certain groups of the population, such as " children's " rubles that can be used to pay at school, but not on gaming platforms, etc. " It can be assumed that the total income of the banking sector from commissions on such transactions (using the digital ruble. - RBC) can amount to at least 0.35%, or about 60 billion rubles per year, with the potential for stable and predictable growth , " the authors of the study estimate.



The absolute size of the reduction in banking sector income will depend on the turnover of the digital ruble and the volume of balances in wallets at the Central Bank, the study says: " Currently, it is not expected that the digital ruble will take up the main share of the volume of retail payments. It has no obvious advantages in terms of convenience of everyday use, and it is not as profitable for end consumers as other means of payment, since it does not involve the accrual of interest on the balance and, most likely, cashback . "

In the next five years, the digital ruble will not be able to significantly push out other methods of retail payments - the widespread use of the digital ruble among individuals can only be stimulated by administrative measures, believes Stanislav Volkov, Managing Director of the NKR rating agency. As an example, he cited the accrual of social benefits only to electronic wallets with the digital ruble, but such measures are unlikely to be used in the next five years.

The digital ruble will not be able to take the main share of the market, agrees Olga Blednova, director of the practice for providing consulting services to companies in the financial sector at Kept. In her opinion, " both the carrot and the stick " will be used for its development. For example, the regulator may require systemically important banks to have a share of the digital ruble in liabilities of no less than a certain level, public sector employees may also be transferred to the digital ruble, and subsidized products using the digital ruble may be created for banks so that this brings in additional income.

" Most likely, the Bank of Russia will primarily promote settlements using the digital ruble between legal entities, including those working with budgetary organizations and state-owned companies. It is also possible that it will find application in servicing foreign trade operations , " Volkov reasons.