Alexander Olshansky about the future. Forecasts and trends

[zakiyatasnim]

Futurological reflections with Denis Dovgopoly, "Chasopys".


About the essence of forecasts, features of forecasting, historical shifts that lead to radical changes
Denis Dovgopoly: I'll tell you why we chose this topic today. Historically, I've been very interested in the future. When I first came to Silicon Valley in 2005, I realized that people there live 5-10 years ahead. Since then, I've had a lot of contact with people who, one way or another, try to look ahead. This summer, I happened to attend an event, Kinnernet, where friends of Yossi Vardi tried to gather other friends of Yossi Vardi. The main leitmotif of this event was the future. Everyone understands that what we kuwait number data see in the future is not always what will come true. The future is always changeable. And the ability to build your life flexibly and receptive to change is probably one of the important qualities of an entrepreneur. It was in the summer that we came up with the idea of ​​holding a series of events on the topic of the future, and we spent the last month and a half trying to find speakers. I always had one speaker in reserve, because Sasha and I talk about this almost half of our meetings. Having looked at who else in our country can speak on this topic, I was upset, because we have very few adequate speakers. Therefore, if we manage to continue this cycle first with Russian, then European, and then American speakers, then the initiative will take shape. If not, then perhaps our country is not mature enough.


Interesting fact - the weather forecast is quite accurate for the next few hours. There are many services, such as aviation, that use short forecasts. The weather forecast for more than 7 days is extremely inaccurate. So inaccurate that it is not clear whether there is any point in making it at all.

But what's interesting is that the long-term forecast, for six months ahead, is again becoming quite accurate. This is a strange fact that many people don't know. Long-term weather forecasts, which don't say "the sun will be out at two o'clock on such-and-such a date," but predict "the average temperature in January will be such-and-such," are extremely accurate. There are many services, primarily agriculture, that actively use them, and they have been proven to significantly increase productivity.